The Methalox Supercycle
Energy Logistics as the Primary Constraint on Space Access
Date: January 6, 2026
Sector: Commodities / Space Infrastructure
Coverage: Orbital Cloud Capital Stack
Executive Summary
While the market fixates on engine manufacturing (Raptor/Archimedes), the physical bottleneck for the Orbital Cloud has shifted upstream to Energy Logistics. The industry-wide transition from Kerosene (RP-1) to Liquid Methane (Methalox) has created a structural supply–demand shock.
Current launch cadence projections (SpaceX "Starfactory") require volumes of cryogenic liquid methane that do not exist in localized supply chains. The infrastructure to turn Pipeline Gas (vapor) into Rocket Fuel (liquid) at the launch pad is the critical path. In practice, liquefaction capacity now caps launch cadence more tightly than engine manufacturing.
Our view: the Methalox supply chain is the keystone constraint for any capacity-based orbital cloud thesis. We recommend a basket that instruments this bottleneck across Liquefaction, Cryogenic Hardware, and Floating Storage.
1. The Macro Driver: The "Starfactory" Multiplier
The demand for Methalox is driven by two reinforcing dynamics that both multiply fuel consumption:
The Shift to Massive Vehicles
A fully stacked Starship holds ~3,400 tons of propellant (approx. 800 tons of methane). This is orders of magnitude higher than legacy Falcon 9 loads and redefines the unit size of each "fuel order."
The Refueling Architecture
To send one Starship to the Moon or Mars, SpaceX must launch roughly ten tanker flights to refuel it in Low Earth Orbit. Every deep-space mission therefore multiplies fuel demand by an order of magnitude.
Implication
A single deep-space mission consumes roughly 8,000+ tons of methane. At even a conservative cadence of one mission per week, localized demand at Boca Chica alone exhausts today's merchant liquefaction capacity.
2. The Constraint: The "Phase Change" Gap
The United States has plenty of natural gas. It does not have plenty of liquid methane. Rockets require densified, cryogenic liquid at roughly -162°C; pipelines deliver vapor.
The missing link is industrial liquefaction at the launch edge. Export-scale LNG terminals (e.g., Cheniere) take 5–7 years to permit and construct. Launch sites such as Boca Chica and Cape Canaveral need supply on a 12–24 month horizon.
Constraint Thesis
The Orbital Cloud cannot scale until the last mile of energy logistics is solved. Liquefaction plants—not engines—are now the rate-limiting step for launch cadence.
3. The Trade: The "Wet" Space Stack
We identify three primary ways to instrument the Methalox bottleneck across time horizons: an immediate squeeze trade, a hardware arms dealer, and a distressed monopoly in thermal defense.
Stabilis Solutions ($SLNG)
Role: Tactical Liquefaction (The "Milk Run")
Thesis: SpaceX needs liquid methane today. Pipelines can't deliver it. Stabilis owns the George West, TX liquefaction facility—strategically located within trucking distance of Starbase. They are the incumbent last‑mile provider.
Catalyst: As launch cadence accelerates in 2026, Stabilis effectively holds pricing power on the only available localized merchant supply.
Chart Industries ($GTLS)
Role: Cryogenic Hardware (Picks & Shovels)
Thesis: You cannot build an LNG plant, a fueling depot, or a ground support system without Brazed Aluminum Heat Exchangers (BAHX) and cryogenic tanks. Chart is the dominant global supplier.
Moat: Whether SpaceX builds their own plant, Stabilis expands, or Golar brings a ship—Chart sells the hardware to all of them.
Dynagas ($DLNG)
Role: Floating Storage (The Warehouse)
Thesis: A daily launch cadence creates lumpy demand. Pipelines trickle; rockets gulp. Spaceports need massive on‑site buffer storage. Building land tanks takes years of EPA permitting.
Solution: Leasing ice‑class LNG carriers as Floating Storage Units (FSU) creates an instant depot without regulatory drag.
Aspen Aerogels ($ASPN)
Role: Thermal Defense (Cryogel)
The Crash (Nov '25): Aspen fell ~40% after its EV battery business (PyroThin) collapsed. The tape now prices the company as a failed EV supplier.
The Alpha: We are buyers on the drawdown. The sell‑off ignored the Energy Industrial segment (Cryogel), which actually grew ~7% through the crisis; the market is throwing out the LNG/space franchise with the EV story.
The Logic: you can build a steel tank (SpaceX does that), but you cannot easily keep it cold. Methane boil‑off is the silent killer of launch economics.
The Moat: Aspen manufactures Cryogel® Z, the industry standard for cryogenic insulation. Unlike hardware, SpaceX cannot cheaply vertically integrate complex aerogel chemistry; they will remain a customer, not a competitor.
The Play: as the Boca Chica tank farm scales toward tens of millions of gallons of capacity, demand for high‑performance thermal barriers scales roughly linearly with storage volume. We're accumulating the "space monopoly" thermal business at distressed EV multiples.
Constraint Matrix
2025 – 2028
Phase Change (Gas → Liquid)
Boca Chica (TX) / Cape Canaveral (FL)
Analyst Rating
Analyst: Orbital Cloud Research
Coverage across launch, logistics, and orbital infrastructure.
The Basket
$SLNG
$GTLS
$DLNG
$ASPN